Friday, August 4, 2017

Countering Hybrid Warfare on the Russian-Finnish Border

In the fall of 2017, Finnish lawmakers will discuss expanding the powers of the Finnish Border Guards. If passed, this will allow the Border Guards to tackle “international hybrid threats, illegal immigration and people smuggling,” as well as install an increased mandate for the use of force. As quoted by the Finnish broadcaster YLE, Deputy Commander Jaakko Olli of the South-East Finland Border Guard stated, "Hybrid threats typically escalate very quickly and are difficult to anticipate,[...]These new powers will allow us to react to situations quicker and more effectively, even in everyday conditions."

The new powers that this law would provide include:
  • Extending the jurisdiction by several hundred meters from points of entry and Border Guard assets
  • Allowing the Border Guards to tap into mobile network stations near points of entry
  • Enhancing audio-visual monitoring capabilities
  • Permitting mobile phone networks to be jammed as needed (only their encrypted Virve network would be unaffected)
  • Monitoring airspace close to the border
  • Authorizing the guards to take over or shoot down drones and unmanned aircraft
  • Military conscripts, rather than only Border and Coast Guard students, can be mobilized for crisis support

The Finnish Border Guard officials in the YLE article constantly mention “hybrid threats”. Given Finland’s location, the most likely source of this hybrid threat is going to come from its border with Russia.

However, Russia is not explicitly mentioned, giving the impression of an attempt to be tactful in the policy’s potential implementation. Technically, if implemented, it would be brought in at all Finnish points of entry, though realistically it is a targeted measure towards the Russian border.

The reasoning is quite clear: Finland is fearful of something happening in the border area.

However, why must terms such as ‘hybrid threats’ or ‘little green men’ be used to justify increasing the capabilities of border guards? The capabilities that would be given to the Finnish Border Guards in the proposed law would not be so different from those given to their American counterparts following 9/11. Yes, such an expanded mandate was given to counter the threat of terrorism, which was a word that was arguably used far too liberally as a means to justify increased security measures. In the same vein, ‘hybrid’ is a description of conflict that has also been used far too much, often adding nothing more than an adjective before something Russia does.

Most borders, even between friendly countries, are secure areas. If a drone is spotted near a border, it is not a hybrid threat, it is a threat, period. If someone is smuggling whatever illegal item or person, it is not hybrid, it is illegal.

Expanding powers to ensure border security is perfectly fine. If the current powers of the Finnish Border Guards is insufficient, Finland should improve those powers. There are likely to be few complaints about keeping the borders secure. The Russian government is very likely not going to send ‘little green men’ across the border, meaning there is really no serious ‘hybrid’ threat.

However, when paranoia begins spreading, the Russian boogeyman returns, and Moscow is made out to be more powerful than it really is. If these measures are put in place, I would hope they become applied as vigorously on Finland’s borders with its Schengen Zone neighbours as with Russia.

Ian Litschko holds a Masters in Politics and Economics in Eurasia from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) and a Masters in European, Russian and Eurasian Studies from Carleton University. He has been a visiting researcher at the Northern Arctic Federal University (NARFU) in Arkhangelsk, researching the application of Russian military doctrine on the Arctic security environment.

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Traitors in our Midst: Treason Charges in Putin’s Russia

Treason is a powerful word. It invokes a sense of distrust in the person, their distaste for country and readiness to betray their home. This is, at least, the common understanding of treason and one that the Russian government recognizes. However, they have also accepted a more troublesome understanding, one that more simply believes disagreeing with the state or doing your job can be viewed as treasonous.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Bombings in the Caucasus: From the Desert to the Mountains

At the end of March, two separate bombings shook Dagestan.  On 30 March 2016, the Caucasus Province of the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) claimed responsibility for detonating two explosive devices against two Russian interior ministry (MVD) vehicles in the Kaispisk area of eastern Dagestan. The group claimed that ten soldiers were killed and three were wounded, though local media sources claim that one soldier was killed and two wounded.

Russia’s Coal Exports: Declining, but Not Burnt Out

Russia’s Minister of Energy Alexander Novak informed Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev that the Ministry predicts that price of coal will continue to fall through 2016. Over the last five years, the price for coal (in rubles) has decreased by 21%, even when accounting for the currency devaluation. Additionally, export prices (in USD) for Russian coal have decreased 1.6 times for energy usage and 2.2 times for coking.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Power Projection, Not the Power of the People

On 27 March 2016, Kommersant published an article claiming that Russia’s military action in Syria is likely to lead to windfall sales of military equipment.  The article claims that Russian can expect upwards of $6-$7 billion in new arms contracts this year as a result of what some have referred to as Russia’s “advertising” campaign in Syria.